BSP’s political foundation is steadily diminishing in the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh. The story of BJP’s B-team raises alarms for BSP, which Mayawati has highlighted to address in the by-elections. BSP’s elephant appears to be hindering BJP’s strategy and slowing down SP’s cycle in the UP by-elections.
BSP leader Mayawati, who scored nothing in the Lok Sabha polls, is confronted with the task of not only starting her tally in the by-elections but also securing a win after 14 years. Furthermore, it is increasingly challenging to prevent the fragmentation of the Dalit vote bank. In spite of all Mayawati’s efforts, Dalits are leaning towards different parties. Mayawati has nominated candidates from the upper caste Hindu community rather than relying on Muslim representatives in various Muslim-majority constituencies during the by-elections, leading to a significant complication in political calculations.
BSP leader Mayawati, participating solo in the UP by-elections, has nominated two Muslim, four upper caste, two OBC, and one Dalit candidates. Analyzing how BSP has chosen its candidates, it appears that the political journey for BJP is more challenging than that of SP. BSP has caused friction for SP regarding Kundarki, Mirapur, and Katehari seats, while it has obstructed BJP on seats such as Ghaziabad, Sisamau, Phulpur, Karhal, and Majhawan.
The constituencies in UP where Mayawati’s elephant appears to be disrupting the game for SP encompass Meerapur, Kundarki, and Katehari. In Meerapur, the BSP has nominated Shah Nazar to compete against SP candidate Sumbul Rana. In a similar manner, Rafat Ullah, known as Chhidda, has been put forward against SP’s Haji Rizwan in Kundarki. By Mayawati nominating a Muslim candidate to run against the SP’s Muslim candidate, the Muslim votes are sure to be divided. In addition to SP and BSP, Owaisi and Chandrashekhar’s party have also nominated Muslim candidates.
The fragmentation of Muslim votes in the Mirapur and Kundarki constituencies could disrupt SP’s strategy. The explanation for this is that in both these constituencies, only Muslim votes appear to support the SP. Votes from the Yadav community are absent in both of these seats. In Mirapur, RLD is likely to gain political advantage from the BSP’s Muslim candidate running against the SP’s Muslim candidate, while tensions for the SP have risen. Likewise, in the Kundarki seat, the BSP has muddied the situation by awarding a ticket to Turk Muslim Rafatullah, opposing SP’s Muslim Turk Haji Rizwan.
BSP is heightening the pressure on SP in this situation, while simultaneously fostering optimism for BJP by anticipating that Muslim votes will be dispersed.
BSP has heightened the political tension of SP regarding the Katehari assembly seat. BJP has nominated Dharamraj Nishad for the Katehari seat, where he is contesting against Shobhavati Verma of SP and Amit Verma of BSP. The number of voters from the Kurmi and Nishad castes on this seat is nearly the same. SP and BSP have placed their trust in Kurmi, whereas BJP has shown faith in the Nishad community. Because SP and BSP have candidates from the Kurmi community, there is a risk of Kurmi votes being divided, potentially undermining SP’s political strategies. As a result, BJP is optimistic about making the lotus flourish in Katehari.
In the UP by-elections, the BSP appears to be disrupting SP’s chances on three seats and has heightened the BJP’s concerns on five seats.
BSP has nominated Avnish Kumar Shakya for the Karhal seat, while it has put forward Parmanand Garg from Ghaziabad, Virendra Shukla from Sisamau, Jitendra Kumar Singh from Phulpur, and Deepak Tiwari from Manjhwa. Thus, the political landscape has turned challenging for the BJP because of BSP’s inclusion of four upper caste and one OBC candidates.
In Karhal, the SP has nominated Tej Pratap Yadav while the BJP has chosen Anuj Yadav, but the BSP has obstructed the BJP’s efforts by fielding a candidate from the Shakya community. In Karhal, the Shakya community has consistently voted against SP, leading BJP to believe that the Shakya community’s votes are in their favor. In this scenario, Mayawati has caused a political crisis for the BJP by putting forward a Shakya candidate.
SP has nominated Naseem Solanki for the Muslim-majority Sisamau assembly seat, while BJP has put forward Suresh Awasthi. In this scenario, BSP has heightened BJP’s political tension by nominating Virendra Shukla, who hails from the Brahmin community. There is a risk of splitting Brahmin votes. In the same vein, SP has nominated Mujtaba Siddiqui from the Muslim community for the Phulpur assembly seat, while BJP has selected Deepak Patel as its candidate. BSP has generated political challenges for BJP by selecting Jitendra Kumar Singh, who belongs to the Thakur community. Thakur voters are viewed as the essential support base of the BJP, but the presence of a BSP candidate poses a risk of splitting Thakur votes.
In the Majhawan assembly constituency, both SP and BJP have chosen OBC candidates, whereas BSP has selected a candidate from the Brahmin community. Jyoti Bind representing SP, Suchismita Maurya from BJP, and Deepak Tiwari Deepu from BSP are demonstrating their electoral prowess. For the Majhawan seat, the BJP has nominated a candidate from the Maurya community, whereas the SP has chosen a candidate from the Nishad community. BSP has heightened the political pressure on BJP by nominating a Brahmin candidate, as this poses a risk of splitting the Brahmin votes.
Mayawati is working to change the perception of the BSP as being the BJP’s B-team. This is why BSP’s political strategy for the by-elections has caused greater political tension for BJP compared to SP. BSP maintains its political foothold in assembly constituencies such as Meerapur, Khair, Majhawan, and Katehari, and has consistently achieved victories there. BSP has generated political challenges for BJP by awarding tickets to upper caste Hindus rather than Muslims in the Muslim-majority Sisamau and Phulpur constituencies.
The BJP’s strategy has been disrupted by presenting a Brahmin candidate in Majhawan and a Vaishya candidate in Ghaziabad. In this manner, Mayawati is attempting to escape the label of being BJP’s B-team, as the Muslim community is continually separating itself from BSP due to accusations of supporting BJP. In this context, Mayawati has generated greater political strain for BJP compared to SP in the by-election. BSP employed the same strategy in the Lok Sabha elections, resulting in BJP facing the consequences during those elections. In preparation for the 2027 assembly elections, Mayawati has arranged the political landscape in the by-election. In this scenario, it is yet to be determined if Mayawati will achieve success with her political strategy.