INDIA alliance hits majority before the upcoming Assembly elections in Haryana’s Legislative Assembly.

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition, Congress, gear up for the upcoming Assembly elections in Haryana due in October, the Lok Sabha election results for the state’s ten constituencies indicate a tight competition between the two parties.

According to Assembly segment-level voting data, should the Assembly elections in Haryana occur presently, it is likely to result in a stalemate. Still, the opposition INDIA alliance is predicted to lead as a coalition.

In a dramatic shift from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP dominated, this time around, the party secured only five seats, matching the Congress’s count. The BJP’s vote share dropped from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.11%, while the Congress saw an increase from 28.51% to 43.67%.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a member of the INDIA alliance, despite only contesting one seat in Kurukshetra as part of a seat-sharing agreement with the Congress, did not secure a win but increased its vote percentage from 0.36% to 3.94%. In the previous election, AAP had contested three seats.

Among regional political entities, neither the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) nor its offshoot, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala, were successful in clinching any seats, recording vote shares of 1.74% and 0.87% respectively. This declined from their 2019 vote shares of 1.9% and 4.9%.

At the level of Assembly segments and subdivisions of the Lok Sabha constituencies, the BJP led in 44 out of Haryana’s 90 Assembly seats. The Congress was close behind, with a lead in 42 seats, while the AAP was ahead in four. Neither JJP nor INLD led in any segments.

Based on the recent Lok Sabha election outcomes, the BJP would narrowly miss the majority threshold of 46 seats if the Assembly elections were held today. However, the combined efforts of Congress and AAP could secure the INDIA alliance, give it a simple majority, and give it the ability to form the state government.

In an exciting turn from 2019, where the BJP swept every Assembly segment across seven Lok Sabha seats, this time, it only managed to sweep the segments in Karnal – a victory for former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. This win came after he was succeeded by Nayab Singh Saini, aiming to tackle anti-incumbency sentiments and unite non-Jat and OBC voters in the state.

Conversely, the Congress secured every Assembly segment in the Rohtak and Sirsa constituencies, with Deepender Hooda securing Rohtak and Selja claiming Sirsa.

It’s noteworthy that Haryana was one of the few states where Congress and AAP successfully negotiated a seat-sharing arrangement, an effort to bolster coordination throughout the campaigning phase. Should the coalition’s Lok Sabha performance translate into Assembly elections success, it could significantly impact the government formation in Haryana later this year.

Back in the 2019 Assembly elections, a fragmented result led to a hung Assembly, with the BJP securing 40 seats and a 36.49% vote share, while Congress got 31 seats with a 28.08% vote share. The JJP played a crucial role by winning ten seats and later aligning with the BJP to form a government. This coalition ended in March, with the BJP government continuing with support from independents. Meanwhile, the INLD won a single seat with a 2.44% vote share, and the remaining seven seats went to independent candidates.