Following the Maharashtra election, there is currently extensive discussions and analysis regarding political strategies. According to the current trend in polls, no party appears to be securing a majority, leading to heightened tension for the Mahavikas Aghadi. In the Lok Sabha elections that took place 4 months ago, the Mahavikas Aghadi had secured a majority in 151 assembly seats.
In this scenario, it is asked why Mahavikas Aghadi is having difficulty reaching the 145 figure needed to establish the government within 4 months.
There was a lot of coverage in the news about the seat sharing of Mahavikas Aghadi. The Congress’s local branch was unwilling to participate in the election with fewer than 120 seats. At last, following the high command’s interference, the party formally consented to 102 seats.
In this period, there was plenty of talk about tension between Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress. The BJP also attempted to turn it into a topic by labeling the Mahavikas Aghadi as an unnatural coalition.
The Mahavikas Aghadi’s decline is due to internal conflicts in multiple constituencies. For instance, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates are competing in the Solapur South constituency. This chair has served as a bastion for the Congress party. The leader at this place is ex-Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde.
While voting was taking place, Sushil Kumar Shinde withdrew his support from Uddhav’s candidate and backed an independent candidate instead. Lately, Sanjay Raut has shown concern that the Sangli model is being replicated in several constituencies.
During the Lok Sabha elections, senior Congress leaders ditched the alliance candidate and backed independent candidate Vishal Patil. As a result, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) candidate achieved the third position.
In 2019, Uddhav Thackeray became the prominent figure of the alliance when Mahavikas Aghadi was established. Thackeray attempted to gain sympathy when the government collapsed. Mahavikas Aghadi also reaped the rewards in the Lok Sabha elections, but the tone of the Congress shifted following this.
Congress caused an issue with the appointment of the CM. The party will decide on Uddhav Thackeray’s appointment as CM after the elections instead of declaring it now. Sharad Pawar also reiterated the opinions of the Congress.
Because of the power struggle for the position of CM, divisions within the alliance became apparent in multiple locations. For instance, in seats where Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress hold significant influence.
Congress has challenged the full 102 seats in Maharashtra on behalf of MVA, yet the party lacked a prominent figure or strong presence in the state. President Nana Patole stayed in Vidarbha. The Deshmukh family also remained stuck in Latur. The party was unpopular in Mumbai as well.
During the Lok Sabha elections in Vidarbha, the Congress effectively addressed Dalit and Constitution-related issues, but this time, the party did not emphasize those issues strongly.
Yet, Congress’ commitment to farmers is seen as a significant and revolutionary change. Congress has pledged numerous significant commitments to cotton and onion farmers leading up to the elections.
The majority of agencies conducting exit polls for Maharashtra have predicted a win for the NDA alliance. According to the People’s Pulse exit poll, the NDA is predicted to win between 175 and 195 seats, the India alliance between 85 and 112 seats, and others between 7 and 12 seats.
P Mark has forecasted a tight battle. Based on the survey, NDA could secure 137-157 seats, India may win 126-146 seats, and other parties could get 2-8 seats.
The MATRIZE exit poll predicts that NDA will secure 150 to 170 seats, while India alliance will likely win 110 to 130 seats. Simultaneously, others can also receive 8 to 10 seats. According to Chanakya Strategies’ exit poll, NDA may secure 152 to 160 seats, India alliance 130 to 138 seats, and others can obtain 6 to 8 seats.