Fadnavis (BJP) and Thackeray (Shiv Sena) speak to supporters after Maharashtra election results. Coalition talks begin.
Fadnavis (BJP) and Thackeray (Shiv Sena) speak to supporters after Maharashtra election results. Coalition talks begin.

Elections to the Maharashtra Assembly in 2024 led to far-reaching alterations in the political mindset of the state. The fallout and impact were felt not just in the politicaifeelvof the per-state governance but also furnished a remarkable rewrite for national political dynamics over the years ahead. Given its unique socio-political fabric, Maharashtra has for long been a harbinger of larger political trends. It is cut across with urban and rural communities, empowered regional parties, and a lineage of coalition governments; the elections of 2024 will see yet another vivid demonstration of the whimsical state of local politics and unpredictability.

As the election was charged and almost marked by considerable shifts in voter preferences with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Bharatiya Janata Party, and Nationalist Congress Party all trying to stake their claim, it was made even more intriguing with the uprising of dozens of small regional parties and independent candidates, now gathered in the hearts of the state that has been for long politically ruled by tradition.

The race against time is like an unsolved puzzle: in December 2021, Shri Uddhav Thackeray, chief of the Shiv Sena party, among many other things, received a cause for anxiety-a trial was opened by the Election Commission concerning party symbols, Gharat, and Nirasha, between themselves and BJP. All these are problems likely to affect the party he thrones breaking from archaic state politics that would vitiate thoughts in the coming years.

The BJP was fueled by its national victory and its strong appeal among voters at all levels, especially those in rural constituencies. It was hoping to demand a strong mandate for itself in Maharashtra. Having ruled the state in alliance with Shiv Sena before, the BJP aimed to cut its ties with its previous partners and present itself as the only force holding sway in the state.

Meanwhile, the Congress-NCP alliance was trying to make a comeback after losing power in this state. The NCP under Sharad Pawar was still a sea of power in state politics, mostly in rural and agrarian constituencies, while the Congress tried to retrieve the lost ground after setback delivery in several recent state and national elections, including seeking the seat in form of an alliance with the NCP following their call for a further alliance.

And, in the whole run-up to the election, the issues that worked on the minds of voters included the recovery from the pandemic, unemployment, farmer distress, urban infrastructure, and rising panic over inflation. The other prominent issues became those of the state-led protests by agrarian movements in favor of respective movements handled by the state government with respect to the pandemic, and as an easy little burning issues on education and health general propagation across the state. Most people took this section of elections as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a new leadership that promised former-day governance and real changes.

The 2024 electoral campaign in Maharashtra was “one of the hottest in living memory.” The Shiv Sena, under Uddhav Thackeray, shaped its campaign around its legacy as a regional party that had always fought for the rights of Maharashtrians and adhered to Hindutva in a somewhat inclusive and regional sense. The party’s slogan “Maharashtra First” received a rousing support from a vast majority of voters, especially in the urban centers of Mumbai, Pune, and Nashik.

Uddhav’s emphasis was on regional pride, state welfare, and proposals for the youth and downtrodden.

Unlike this, the BJP’s campaign was built on the national narrative of development, security, and economic reforms. The BJP is led by Devendra Fadnavis, a former Chief Minister of Maharashtra, who brought emphasis to party achievements in the past while citing infrastructure enhancements, industrial development, and law-and-order upgrades done by the party. The BJP now targets its appeal to urban voters, businesses, and the youth for concern about national security and development. However, the BJP seems to have preserved an alliance with the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, which brings with it a hearty dose of regional pride worded in a Hindutva-tinted pro-Maharashtra rhetoric.

The Congress-NCP alliance led by veteran Sharad Pawar sought to open a line of arguments on farmers’ rights, rural development, and social welfare. Pawar continues to remain a great deal of respect in the state; in particular, he stands most firm in rural areas given his focus on agrarian issues. Congress, for its part, brought forward the need for strong opposition to completely counter the growing BJP tide in Maharashtra and suggested to fashion its platform on social justice, equality, and economic recovery.

Such smaller regional parties like Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) also created a difference in the electoral discourse. Without winning too many seats, their campaign emphasized regional identity, Marathi pride, and opposition to the influx of migrants, which resonated with some voter sets, especially among the urban Maharashtra class. Turnout in rural areas was marginally better, while big cities saw a remarkable increase in participation. This could be attributed to a heightened political awareness and concern for the state’s future, coupled with a yearning for change after a long phase of political instability.

According to the exit polls, they were closely contested with the BJP-led alliance and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) locked in a fierce contest for state government. Political analysts pointed out political divides along regional, urban-rural, and ideological lines. While there was strong loyalty to the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) in Mumbai and Thane, significant support for the BJP was found in northern and western Maharashtra. Although scattered to some degree, the Congress-NCP alliance remained quite strong in the rural areas, particularly in Vidarbha and Marathwada.

When the results were finally announced, they turned out to be a shocking mishmash of both expected and unexpected outcomes.The BJP emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra, securing 120 out of a possible 288 seats in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party did not reach a clear majority, which was supposed to have been set at 145 seats. A strong plurality of seats should have told the BJP that its statewide appeal was limited-as demonstrated by the vigorous resistance offered by the Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and Congress-NCP.

Action, having gone through a stormy split but having held on to its core support, came up a strong second in the state with 55 seats. Uddhav Thackeray’s overwhelming regional perspective and often more hospitable leadership captured the imagination of voters in urban and suburban areas.

The Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena, allied with the BJP, performed comparatively poorly, winning only 40 seats. However, it somehow managed to hold on to power with its coalition with the BJP; the outcome suggested that the faction’s appeal was rather restricted to rural areas and less so in urban constituencies.

The Congress-NCP alliance, in their frail efforts, could not save their position, winning only 50 seats. This result delivered a blow to the coalition’s hopes of regaining strong credence in the state. With Sharad Pawar’s influence more or less intact, the party couldn’t translate that into tangible electoral gains as, more often than not, the BJP and the Shiv Sena factions encroached upon many of their traditional rural heartlands.

Smaller parties, like the MNS and others, won a handful of seats but have had little input into the end result. Nevertheless, with their likely presence in the legislature, this marks a noticeable shift toward fragmented politics and the emphasis of regional identities and autonomy in Maharashtra.

The results from the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections now seem to prepare for another installment of complex coalition politics. While the BJP became the largest party, it would have to ally with other parties to form a majority in the assembly. Although the Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and Congress-NCP ended with lesser seats, they somehow could be important players in the post-poll scenario.

However, the BJP’s loss of some urban constituencies, largely within Mumbai and its suburbs, seems to present an indication of the possible difficulties the party might have in consolidating itself in future elections unless they address issues like unemployment, inflation, and riddle of regional identity.

The Shinde faction’s failures seem a clear sign that whatever ideological support it had from the BJP is not equivalent to that of the original Shiv Sena-BJP combine.

It is a little bit of cheer for Uddhav Thackeray that the results show that the original Shiv Sena brand of regionalism, founded on Marathi pride and the protection of local interests, still has a vibrant appeal to voters. But the real problem for Uddhav is that the Shiv Sena is now a split party, and it is still going to be some time before his faction can regroup its strength in the state’s politics.

The results point to continuing decline for the Congress-NCP combine as traditional political forces in Maharashtra. While Sharad Pawar remains a potent force in the politics of the state, for the Congress to make a forward run in regaining ground in subsequent elections, serious reinvention of itself is needed.

The Maharashtra Assembly elections of 2024 have resulted in a reconfiguration of the state politics, where dominance is still with the BJP but with its serious troubles in securing a simple majority. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav) proved it had powerful regionalist appeal despite siding with itself into factions; while the Congress-NCP coalition grappled with murky political waters setting in.

A new round of coalition politics has begun with the state of Maharashtra awaiting them southward like a minefield of tricky alliances, regional aspirations, and governance challenges. The months ahead will witness the jostling of parties attempting to come to some arrangements for power-sharing that can pave the way for the formation of a stable government in the state. The results of this election have made it clear that the political trajectory of Maharashtra cannot be envisaged in finality, and the next few years will be determining for the developmental imprint that the state will bear- economically and socially.